Wednesday, 26 July 2017

Nifty50 can scale Mt 1,00,000! Market veterans wager on time

It sounded absurd way back in 2001. The Nifty50 was ruling at sub-1,000 level right after the dotcom bubble burst. Who would have thought it would jump 10 times to hit 10,000 mark in next 16 years? 

But what about the next 10-times rise, to 1,00,000 mark? Will it take 15 years? 20 years? Or more? 

Analysts believe even if India Inc’s earnings grow in lower teens from here on, the index can climb the six-digit mark in just about 15 years. 
Historically, Nifty50’s earnings growth has been in the 15-17 per cent range. 

“Going forward, it will be a function of inflation and real GDP growth. Even if we see an early teens kind of compounding, that is something very much doable, we should grow another 10 times to reach the 1,00,000 mark on the Nifty50 over the next 15 to 20 years. That is something to look forward to for long-term investors,” said Gautam Sinha Roy, Fund Manager at Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund. 

What kind of wealth creation happens for investors in such a run will depend entirely on how much alpha fund managers can add. “Nifty hitting 10,000 is indeed a very momentous event, although it is more of psychological than anything else,” said Sinha Roy. 

For Porinju Veliyath, MD, Equity Intelligence India, the 10,000 mark is just a number. What he is interested in is the next 5-10 years. 

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