Monday, 31 July 2017

Q1 performance of India's top 5 companies

Profit or loss -

We are half way into June quarter results and more than 15 Sensex companies have already declared their quarterly numbers.

While India Inc’s earnings growth continued to lag estimates for June quarter, the domestic stock market last week hit levels never seen before on Dalal Street.

Here is a review of earnings of India’s 10 most valued companies.

Reliance Industries

Reliance Industries’ consolidated net profit rose 28 per cent to Rs 9,108 crore in the June quarter, compared with Rs 7,113 crore in the same quarter last year.

Profit was boosted by Rs 1,087 crore earned from the sale of stake in Gulf Africa Petroleum Corp.

HDFC Bank

HDFC Bank, the second largest private sector lender, reported a 20.2 per cent year-on-year (YoY) rise in net profit at Rs 3,894 crore for the June quarter.

The lender had reported Rs 3,239 crore profit in the year-ago quarter.

Maruti Suzuki

The country’s largest car maker, Maruti Suzuki India, reported 4.4 per cent increase in net profit at Rs 1,556.4 crore for the first quarter ended June 30, 2017.

Due to strong volume growth, its revenue increased by 16.4 percent to Rs 19,777.4 crore viz-a-viz year-ago quarter.

Infosys

India's second biggest software services exporter Infosys reported a 1.4 per cent growth in its net profit at Rs 3,483 crore for the April-June quarter.

The IT major overshot first-quarter profit estimates helped by key client wins. Infosys added eight clients in its $100 million category during the quarter.

Kotak Mahindra Bank

Kotak Mahindra Bank's June quarter earnings rose 23 per cent to Rs 912.7 crore driven by growth in all its businesses from retail to treasury to corporate lending.

Net interest income climbed 17 per cent to Rs 2,245.5 crore, from Rs 1,919 crore last year.


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Saturday, 29 July 2017

Nifty index topped a 100-point multiple in series

The 50-share index has risen around 22 percent so far this calendar and the uptrend has been a fairly consistent one.

With the Nifty having topped the 10,000-mark convincingly, bullish traders have now set their sights on the index having a free run for another 200-300 points.

If you are among those who feel that the index still has steam left in it, buying a call option for a strike price at the nearest 100-point multiple early on in the new F&O series would be the best way to play the trade.

Moneycontrol analysed the seven F&O series in 2017 starting from January, which shows that the Nifty index has topped a 100-point multiple at least once in every series.

This interesting trend hindsight shows that if investor had bought out-of-the-money call option for strike price closest to the next 100 multiple of NIFTY level on the first day of the new series and sold it as soon as the option is at-the-money or near to that, he would have gained a minimum of 12 percent and maximum of 105 percent on that option. We did the back testing of this for the last seven F&O series.

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Friday, 28 July 2017

Govt raises Rs 535 cr from NFL share sale

The government's 15 per cent stake sale in National Fertilizers Ltd (NFL) today fetched Rs 535 crore to the exchequer, with over-subscription from both retail and institutional investors.

The two-day offer for sale (OFS) opened for retail investors today and was over-subscribed 1.66 times.

Against Rs 107 crore reserved for retail investors, total bids of Rs 178.67 crore were received.

Institutional investors' portion was over-subscribed 1.35 times yesterday with bids worth Rs 578.8 crore coming in against shares for value of Rs 428.57 crore at the floor price.

"Overall, NFL OFS for 15 per cent divestment for equity shares of 7.35 crore amounting to Rs 535.71 crore at the floor price Rs 72.80 per share, received a total demand for equity shares amounting to Rs 757.45 crore. Therefore, the OFS of NFL was over-subscribed by 1.41 times," the Finance ministry said in a statement.

This is the third CPSE OFS in the current financial year, and the government is likely to get Rs 535 crore approximately, it added.

The government shareholding in NFL after this OFS has come down to 74.71%.

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Thursday, 27 July 2017

Today Maruti Suzuki Q1 results

Today Country’s largest carmaker Maruti Suzuki may report double-digit growth in net profit for the quarter ended June 30, 2017. 

Brokerage firm Edelweiss Securities sees 20.60 per cent YoY rise profit after tax, while EBITDA and revenue may increase by 16 per cent and 16.40 per cent on YoY basis. 

Market experts see volume growth of 13 per cent YoY (and 5 per cent QoQ) to around 3,94,571 units, led by better performance from Baleno and Brezza with incremental Gujarat production, though slightly impacted by GST transition. 

Shares of the company settled 0.84 per cent up at Rs 7577.95 on Wednesday. 

According to brokerage Motilal Oswal, the car major may post 9.5 per cent YoY rise in bottomline figures at Rs 1,627.40 crore against Rs 1486.20 crore in the same quarter last year. 

Motial Oswal sees 110 basis points YoY fall in EBITDA margins due to the impact of Gujarat plant and higher fixed cost due to same. Higher offers due to GST transition would also impact margins. 

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Wednesday, 26 July 2017

Nifty50 can scale Mt 1,00,000! Market veterans wager on time

It sounded absurd way back in 2001. The Nifty50 was ruling at sub-1,000 level right after the dotcom bubble burst. Who would have thought it would jump 10 times to hit 10,000 mark in next 16 years? 


But what about the next 10-times rise, to 1,00,000 mark? Will it take 15 years? 20 years? Or more? 

Analysts believe even if India Inc’s earnings grow in lower teens from here on, the index can climb the six-digit mark in just about 15 years. 
Historically, Nifty50’s earnings growth has been in the 15-17 per cent range. 

“Going forward, it will be a function of inflation and real GDP growth. Even if we see an early teens kind of compounding, that is something very much doable, we should grow another 10 times to reach the 1,00,000 mark on the Nifty50 over the next 15 to 20 years. That is something to look forward to for long-term investors,” said Gautam Sinha Roy, Fund Manager at Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund. 

What kind of wealth creation happens for investors in such a run will depend entirely on how much alpha fund managers can add. “Nifty hitting 10,000 is indeed a very momentous event, although it is more of psychological than anything else,” said Sinha Roy. 

For Porinju Veliyath, MD, Equity Intelligence India, the 10,000 mark is just a number. What he is interested in is the next 5-10 years. 


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Tuesday, 25 July 2017

Today's Market Update - LTI Q1 profit rises

LTI, formerly known as Larsen & Toubro Infotech, reported a net profit of Rs 2,672 million in the first quarter, an increase of 5 percent from the previous quarter, even as the company reiterated that digital business would overtake the traditional model of IT outsourcing.

The company’s chief executive officer Sanjay Jalona said that digital business now represents over 29 percent of LTI’s revenues.

The company reported revenue of Rs 16,707 million in the quarter ended June, a decline of 0.4 percent from the previous quarter, and growth of 7.4 percent since the same quarter in the previous year.

LTI added 12 new clients in the quarter, with one client each in the USD 20 million and USD 10 million revenue bands.

India business accounted for 7 percent of the revenue of LTI during the first quarter. “We have critical and large deals here (in India), and are committed to projects like Smart Cities and Digital India,” Jalona said, adding that LTI would like to keep the India business at 6-7 percent.

He said that LTI does not see the goods and services tax (GST) regime as an impediment to business in India.

The total number of employees in LTI at the end of the quarter was 22,321, with the attrition of 14.7 percent.

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Monday, 24 July 2017

Share Market Morning Update

Indian market witnessed a volatility week as benchmark indices closed marginally higher but over their crucial support levels. The Nifty50 closed 0.29 percent higher at 9,915 and the S&P BSE Sensex ended above 32,000 for the week ended 21 July.

The Nifty50 index is trading at its all-time high and the recent up move in the index has not been supported by broad market participation which in itself is a concern. It looks like that Indian market might be trading in last leg of its rally, suggest experts.

We have collated a list of top five stock ideas which could give up to 14% return in the next 5 sessions to 2 months:

Manappuram Finance: BUY| Target Rs119| Stop Loss Rs97| Return 14%

In last few months, this stock has consolidated in a broad range of Rs88-105. The prices are on the verge of a breakout from the resistance end of the mentioned range. In last few sessions, the volumes have increased with upmove in prices, which is a positive sign.

Hence, traders are advised to buy this stock at current levels and on declines up to Rs 104.50 for a target of Rs 119 over the next 14 – 21 sessions. The stop loss should be fixed at Rs 97.

IndusInd bank: SELL| Target Rs1518| Stop Loss Rs1599| Return 3%

This has been one of the steady outperforming stocks within the ‘Private’ banking space. At present, the stock is trading near its all time high; but, we are now observing a possibility of some short term correction.

Karnataka Bank: SELL| Target Rs142| Stop Loss Rs161| Return 9%

Post a stupendous up move from the levels of Rs100 to Rs180 in a span of less than seven months, the prices have undergone a consolidation phase since last few weeks.

Hence, traders are advised to sell this stock below Rs155 for a target of Rs 142 in short term. The stop loss should be fixed at Rs 161.

Container Corp: BUY| Target Rs1270| Stop Loss Rs1120| Return 7%

The stock closed at Rs1,180.55 on 21st July 2017. It made a 52-week low at Rs8,44.45 on 21st December 2016 and a 52-week high of Rs1,251.60 on 23rd May 2017. The 200-days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs1,097.47

Traders can buy in the range of Rs 1,165-1,170 levels for the upside target of Rs 1,270-1,300 levels with a stop loss below Rs 1,120.

Bharti Infratel: BUY| Target Rs460| Stop Loss Rs 375| Return 12%

The stock closed at Rs410.30 on 21st July 2017. It made a 52-week low at Rs281.75 on 28th February 2017 and a 52-week high of Rs424.75 on 18th July 2017. The 200-days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at 363.59.

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